Goldman lifts copper prices view on ex-U.S. market tightness

Goldman Sachs has raised its copper price forecasts, pointing to a materially tighter market outside the U.S., driven by weaker mine supply and tariff-related shifts in trade flows.

The bank’s commodities team now sees copper deficits, excluding the U.S., of around 640,000 tonnes in 2026 and 170,000 tonnes in 2027, a significant deterioration from prior estimates.

Global mine supply has been cut by roughly 350,000 tonnes in both years, primarily due to slower-than-expected recoveries at the Grasberg and Kamoa-Kakula mines, with full recovery not anticipated until 2028. Scrap is not picking up the slack, given weaker availability within China, analyst Matt Greene said in a note.

At the same time, heavy U.S. imports in the first half of 2026 have continued to pull metal out of the non-U.S. system. Goldman now expects U.S. inventories to build by approximately 900,000 tonnes this year, reaching around 1.8 million tonnes by year-end, up from roughly 100,000 tonnes at the start of 2025.

The bank’s revised copper price forecasts show a sharp upward revision across the curve. Goldman now sees copper averaging $13,349 per tonne in 2026 and $13,800 per tonne in 2027, compared with prior estimates of $12,131 and $10,750, respectively.

The key near-term variable, Greene says, is the outcome of U.S. tariff policy, which it expects to be announced this month.

“A Jan’27 tariff introduction would likely pull forward more U.S. imports, further tightening the non-U.S. market and potentially pushing LME prices above $14,000 per tonne in 2H’26, before easing in 2027 as flows normalise,” he wrote.

A definitive no-tariff outcome, in contrast, could flip 2027 back into surplus and weigh on prices toward around $12,800 per tonne, which the analyst sees as copper’s fundamental fair value.

Against this backdrop, Goldman reiterated Buy ratings on Lundin Mining and Antofagasta as its top picks among copper-exposed equities. For Lundin, Greene highlighted its valuation at roughly 1x price-to-NAV versus sector peers at 1.5x to 2x, alongside copper’s now representing 85% of total revenue.

Antofagasta, meanwhile, is seen as “one of the few scalable, pure European copper gold equities,” with production growth anchored by its Centinela and Pelambres assets. Price targets for both stocks were raised by 18%.