US stocks gain modestly ahead of Trump tariffs after dismal Q1

 U.S. stocks gained slightly Tuesday as investors weighed recession risks versus a first-quarter overcorrection ahead of President Donald Trump’s April 2 tariff announcements.

At 11:12 AM ET, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 32 points, or 0.1%, the S&P 500 index traded up 18 points, or 0.3%, and the NASDAQ Composite rose 117 points, or 0.7%.

The main Wall Street indices suffered during the first quarter, on fears the trade levies the Trump administration is set to announce will crimp economic activity and trigger inflation, potentially forcing the U.S. economy, the world’s largest, into recession.

The broad-based S&P 500 lost nearly 5% in the first quarter of 2025, the tech-heavy NASDAQ Composite suffered an over 10% quarterly plunge, while the blue chip Dow Jones Industrial Average lost nearly 2% in the first quarter.

Trump reciprocal tariffs loom, heighten recession risks

Trump has set April 2 as the deadline to impose reciprocal tariffs on a broad range of trading partners. This initiative, referred to as “Liberation Day,” will be followed by a 25% tariff on auto imports starting April 3.

A Wall Street Journal report over the weekend indicated that Trump is contemplating increased tariffs on a wider array of nations as part of his trade strategy to address what he claims are unfair trade imbalances impacting the U.S.

These measures are expected to significantly impact global trade dynamics and have raised concerns about their potential to contribute to recession risks.

Goldman Sachs has increased the probability of a U.S. recession to 35%, up from a previous estimate of 20%, citing the anticipated rise in average tariff rates to 15%.

Job openings data due

There are also an abundance of important U.S. economic data indicators due this week, starting later in the session with the February reading of a measure of job openings, which will be the first of a string of labor market data that will culminate with the all-important nonfarm payrolls report on Friday.

The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey, or JOLTS report dipped to 7.568 million in February, down from an upwardly revised prior level of 7.762 million and just below the consensus of 7.69 million. Job openings are down 877,000 over the year, data from the Labor Department’s Bureau of Labor Statistics showed.

PVH soars on strong Q4

In terms of corporate news, PVH Corp (NYSE:PVH) stock rose 16% after the luxury conglomerate, which owns brands such as Calvin Klein and Tommy Hilfiger, reported a fourth-quarter earnings and revenue beat.

Johnson & Johnson (NYSE:JNJ) stock fell almost 5% after a judge rejected the consumer healthcare giant’s $10 billion proposal to end tens of thousands of lawsuits alleging that its baby powder and other talc products cause ovarian cancer.

Progress Software (NASDAQ:PRGS) stock gained over 10% after the software company reported strong first-quarter earnings and also guided for full-year earnings that exceeded the consensus estimate.

Monday’s IPO for Newsmax Inc (NYSE:NMAX) gained another 70% on Tuesday after surging 735% in it debut. It is being called the “next meme stock.”

Gold hits new all-time high

Oil prices gained slightly Tuesday, trading near five-week highs after President Trump threatened to impose secondary tariffs on Russian crude and attack Iran.