Bitcoin set for weekly loss on post-midterms regulatory uncertainty, jobs report

Bitcoin erased losses and turned slightly higher on Friday, helped by a rebound in risk sentiment on Wall Street. Still, gains in the world’s largest cryptocurrency were capped by a blockbuster jobs report that boosted Federal Reserve rate hike bets, along with an uncertain regulatory outlook for digital assets under a Democrat-controlled U.S. Congress.

Blowout jobs data adds to hawkish expectations

Crypto market participants were focused on the U.S. economic calendar on Friday, with the October jobs report taking center stage.

As per the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 165k last month, surging past the consensus estimate of 65k. Employment for August and September were revised upward by a combined 84k. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate ticked down to 4.1% from 4.2% in September.

With inflation running well above the Fed’s long-term 2% target, the stellar report suggests that the labor market remains very strong. This theoretically gives the central bank more headroom to hike interest rates – a scenario that could herald more pain for Wall Street. The Fed raised rates by 25 basis points in September, with policymakers indicating that sticky inflation was likely to elicit more hikes.

As per the CME FedWatch tool, the odds of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) delivering another quarter-point rate hike on December 9 rose to nearly 79% after the jobs data from almost 73% before. Higher rate environments tend to weigh on speculative assets such as cryptocurrencies.

Bitcoin heads for weekly loss on U.S. regulatory doubts

Away from the economic calendar, Bitcoin was set to lose 2% this week – its fifth straight week in the red – as initial optimism over the U.S. midterm elections gave way to mounting uncertainty over what a Democrat-led Congress will portend for crypto.

Democrats have historically expressed more skepticism towards crypto, with major voices in the party – chiefly Senator Elizabeth Warren – calling for a broader crackdown on the sector.

Bitcoin’s historical performance in a Democrat-led performance is mixed, with the last such environment – between 2021 and 2022 – resulting in a 43% drop.

But this period was also characterized by rising U.S. interest rates and several high-profile bankruptcies in the sector – chiefly Terra, FTX, and Celsius.

Still, Democrat opposition towards a widely awaited regulatory act – the Clarity Act – resulted in the legislation failing in Congress earlier this year. Democrat lawmakers have also called for more anti-money laundering and risk management measures in crypto – a notion that most industry proponents have argued will stifle innovation in the sector.

Beyond the regulatory uncertainty, Bitcoin was also pressured by major miner Riot Platforms disclosing this week that it sold off most of its Bitcoin holdings in the third quarter.

Trump memecoin slumps to record low after midterm elections

President Donald Trump’s memecoin – $TRUMP – slumped to record lows this week after the Republican party suffered bruising losses in the midterm elections.

$TRUMP wiped out over 22% this week and hit a record low of $1.116 on Thursday, before recovering marginally on Friday.

The memecoin was launched around the time of Trump’s inauguration as the 47th U.S. president in early-2025. It hit a record high of $73.43 shortly after its launch, and has now wiped out about 99% of its value.