Europe wary as SCOTUS ruling triggers a ‘new round’ of trade uncertainty

 While the U.S. Supreme Court’s decision to strike down a major portion of President Trump’s tariff program initially looked like a windfall for foreign exporters, Europe Inc. is greeting the news with deep skepticism. From Italian winemakers to German chemical giants, the consensus across the Atlantic is that the ruling may have traded one set of problems for an even more volatile trade environment.

Far from being a “silver bullet,” industry leaders warn that the decision could trigger a “boomerang effect,” freezing orders and stalling the trade deals that businesses spent the last year painstakingly adapting to.

Uncertainty is the new “normal” for EU exporters

The primary concern for European trade groups is the “twist in the story” regarding legal authority. While the SCOTUS ruling dismantled the use of national emergency laws (IEEPA) for tariffs, it didn’t end the trade war. Instead, it pushed the administration toward a “tariff pivot” that could see new levies reappear under different legal statutes as early as this summer.

• Italian wine & agriculture: For Italy, where the U.S. is the top market for wine exports (€1.9 billion in 2024), the ruling risks creating a regulatory vacuum. Paolo Castelletti of the UIV warns of a potential “freeze on orders” as operators wait for the dust to settle.

• German chemicals: Wolfgang Grosse Entrup, head of the German chemical lobby VCI (representing firms like BASF and Bayer), noted that this isn’t a phase of stability but a “new round of uncertainty.”

• French luxury: The French cosmetics association FEBEA remains “very cautious,” anticipating further twists from the U.S. government that could target the high-end consumer sector.

  The logistics “irreversibility”

  Logistics experts suggest that the damage to global supply chains may already be permanent. Peter Sand, chief analyst at Xeneta, noted that the trend toward “de-risking” and moving supply chains away from tariff-heavy regions is an irreversible shift. For many shippers, the legal win in Washington comes too late to undo the structural changes made to avoid the 25% to 35% levies that dominated the last year.

  The refund mirage

  While the ruling opens the door to potential refunds, a figure that some have estimated as high as $175 billion, European firms are not holding their breath. President Trump’s immediate announcement of a new 10% global tariff and his ambiguity regarding reimbursements suggest that getting cash back from the U.S. Treasury will be a lengthy and difficult legal battle.

  For investors, the takeaway is one of “cautious positioning.” The immediate relief for European exporters is being offset by the risk of a chaotic transition to new U.S. trade laws.