The dollar was poised to push higher on Thursday as hawkish comments from the U.S. Federal Reserve led markets to bring forward the likely timing of a policy tightening there, while action in Europe and Japan remain distant prospects
The euro was down at $1.1837, having recoiled from a top of $1.1899 overnight and marking another failure to crack resistance around $1.1910
The dollar also bounced to 109.51 yen, from a trough of 108.71 on Wednesday negating what had been a bearish break on the downside
The rally came after Fed Vice Chair Richard Clarida said conditions for an interest rate hike could be met in late 2022, setting the stage for a move in early 2023
He and three other Fed members also signaled a move to taper bond buying later this year or early next depending on how the labor market fared in the next few months
“It is reflective of a hawkish drift among the committee about the risks of more persistent inflation, and what that might mean for achieving the Fed’s new inflation framework,” said Brian Daingerfield, an analyst at NatWest Markets
“This is all to say that the stakes for Friday’s payrolls, and subsequent payrolls, are sky high
Predicting the jobs report with any confidence remains particularly tricky as the spread of the delta variant and labor bottlenecks roil the market
Thus, while the median forecast for payrolls is 870,000 the range of estimates stretches from 350,000 to 1.6 million
Adding to the murkiness were Wednesday’s mixed data where a surprisingly weak ADP report on private hiring clashed with the strongest ever reading for U.S. services
Clarida’s comments led investors to price in slightly more chance of a hike in late 2022/early 2023 and to a flattening of the Treasury yield curve as short-term yields rose
Such a move would likely come well ahead of any tightening by the European Central Bank, which is still battling to get inflation near its target
In contrast, the Bank of England is much nearer to tapering and could expand on timing at a policy meeting later on Thursday
That outlook helped the pound rally early in the year, though it has gone largely sideways on the last couple of months. It was last pinned near support at $1.3884, having repeatedly failed to clear resistance above $1.3980
All these central banks are laggards compared with the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ), which seems likely to hike rates at its next policy meeting on Aug. 18, making it the first in the developed world to move since the pandemic hit
A super-strong jobs report on Wednesday only added to the case for New Zealand tightening and sent the kiwi surging to a one-month peak of $0.7088 overnight before steadying at $0.7041
The dollar was poised to push higher on Thursday as hawkish comments from the U.S. Federal Reserve led markets to bring forward the likely timing of a policy tightening there, while action in Europe and Japan remain distant prospects
The euro was down at $1.1837, having recoiled from a top of $1.1899 overnight and marking another failure to crack resistance around $1.1910
The dollar also bounced to 109.51 yen, from a trough of 108.71 on Wednesday negating what had been a bearish break on the downside
The rally came after Fed Vice Chair Richard Clarida said conditions for an interest rate hike could be met in late 2022, setting the stage for a move in early 2023
He and three other Fed members also signaled a move to taper bond buying later this year or early next depending on how the labor market fared in the next few months
“It is reflective of a hawkish drift among the committee about the risks of more persistent inflation, and what that might mean for achieving the Fed’s new inflation framework,” said Brian Daingerfield, an analyst at NatWest Markets
“This is all to say that the stakes for Friday’s payrolls, and subsequent payrolls, are sky high
Predicting the jobs report with any confidence remains particularly tricky as the spread of the delta variant and labor bottlenecks roil the market
Thus, while the median forecast for payrolls is 870,000 the range of estimates stretches from 350,000 to 1.6 million
Adding to the murkiness were Wednesday’s mixed data where a surprisingly weak ADP report on private hiring clashed with the strongest ever reading for U.S. services
Clarida’s comments led investors to price in slightly more chance of a hike in late 2022/early 2023 and to a flattening of the Treasury yield curve as short-term yields rose
Such a move would likely come well ahead of any tightening by the European Central Bank, which is still battling to get inflation near its target
In contrast, the Bank of England is much nearer to tapering and could expand on timing at a policy meeting later on Thursday
That outlook helped the pound rally early in the year, though it has gone largely sideways on the last couple of months. It was last pinned near support at $1.3884, having repeatedly failed to clear resistance above $1.3980
All these central banks are laggards compared with the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ), which seems likely to hike rates at its next policy meeting on Aug. 18, making it the first in the developed world to move since the pandemic hit
A super-strong jobs report on Wednesday only added to the case for New Zealand tightening and sent the kiwi surging to a one-month peak of $0.7088 overnight before steadying at $0.7041