Goldman Sachs boosts its end-2025 gold price outlook

Goldman Sachs upped its year-end gold price outlook from $3,100 to $3,300 per troy ounce and its forecast range to $3,250-$3,520, citing unexpected rises in exchange-traded fund (ETF) inflows and sustained robust demand from central banks.

Gold recently surged above $3,000 per ounce on March 14 after a period of speculative repositioning, driven by headlines surrounding a possible tariff package targeting the EU and media attention on a “Mar-a-Lago accord” framework.

This resulted in a sharp rebound in speculative length, pushing gold back to the 85th percentile of positioning after net additions of approximately 60 tonnes.

Goldman’s bullish outlook is underpinned by expectations that central banks will maintain strong buying momentum. The bank now expects an average of 70 tonnes per month in central bank purchases, up from its prior estimate of 50 tonnes.

“Our base case forecast assumes speculative positioning normalizes from current elevated levels (85th percentile), while the top end of our price range reflects persistently stretched positioning amid heightened uncertainty,” Goldman strategists Lina Thomas and Daan Struyven said in a report.

The report also highlights the possibility that, under tail-risk scenarios, gold prices could surpass $4,200 per ounce by the end of 2025.

China’s role in the global gold market remains pivotal, with its central bank continuing to accumulate gold as part of a broader diversification strategy.

Goldman Sachs estimates that if China maintains its current pace of gold purchases — roughly 40 tonnes per month — it could take 3-6 years for its gold reserve share to reach 20-30%, aligning it closer to developed market standards.