5 big analyst AI moves: Nvidia target upped to $240, Oracle gets a Sell rating

 Here are the biggest analyst moves in the area of artificial intelligence (AI) for this week.

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Barclays lifts Nvidia target to $240, says it’s ’most attractive name’ in its coverage

Barclays raised its price target on Nvidia (NASDAQ:NVDA) to $240 from $200, citing accelerating demand for AI infrastructure and the company’s central role in the buildout. The bank reiterated its Overweight rating, describing Nvidia as “the most attractive name in our space.”

Analyst Tom O’Malley pointed to a sharp expansion in AI investment. “With the wave of announcements that have come over the last 6-9mo, we now estimate over $2T of planned spend at ~40GW of power in total,” he said.

He added that “within that, we attribute ~65-70% to compute & networking with more deals likely in the pipeline, which starts to make the updated guidance of $3-4T look much more real.”

Barclays’ updated model projects Nvidia’s adjusted EPS to rise from $3 in fiscal 2025 to $6.93 in fiscal 2027 (FY27), implying a 53% annual increase.

The new target of $240 is based on 35 times its 2026 earnings estimate, while O’Malley said it would equate to about 30 times an implied EPS of $7.85 if revenue from Nvidia’s new OpenAI deal is included.

Nvidia on Monday agreed to commit up to $100 billion to OpenAI, supplying the ChatGPT maker with data center chips under a letter of intent covering at least 10 gigawatts of systems.

O’Malley emphasized that Nvidia remains at the heart of the AI ecosystem, with Barclays’ tracker pointing to 19 million GPUs tied to announced projects and hyperscalers driving demand.

He also highlighted rapid usage growth in AI applications, noting a 482% surge in ChatGPT message volumes in June.

“We see this largely flowing into the NVDA P&L (profit and loss) over the next 5+ years, moving numbers materially higher,” he said.

Barclays set an upside case of $300, assuming a larger AI market, stronger networking demand and higher margins. The downside case is $140, reflecting risks from weaker AI spending, a slower auto ramp and pricing pressure.

Microsoft named new Top Pick in large-cap software

This week, Morgan Stanley upgraded Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT) to its Top Pick in large-cap software, citing broadening growth drivers across AI and cloud. The bank lifted its price target to $625 from $582, calling Microsoft the “clearest and highest probability positive risk/reward” in the sector.

The target is based on 32 times projected 2027 GAAP earnings of $19.73 per share, with a Price/Earnings to Growth (PEG) ratio of 1.9, consistent with peers and historical averages.

The upgrade follows muted share performance despite strong results, including 39% constant-currency Azure growth, a 35% rise in commercial bookings, and margin expansion.

Analyst Keith Weiss noted that concerns over Microsoft’s ties to OpenAI, the pace of Azure’s growth, and competition from agentic computing have weighed on sentiment.