Canaccord’s says 2026 is likely to be ’a bountiful year for Tesla’

Canaccord Genuity analyst George Gianarikas said 2026 is shaping up to be a pivotal year for Tesla, driven by a wave of new products and a reset in the U.S. electric vehicle market that he believes ultimately favours the company.

Gianarikas said Tesla is set to benefit from the expected scale-up of its CyberCab and Optimus Gen 3 programs, alongside a potential acceleration in Semitruck production.

He also flagged continued growth in energy storage, supported by the launch of Megapack 3, describing 2026 as a year with multiple new product catalysts.

In the United States the expiry of federal EV subsidies has weighed on near-term demand but is forcing the market into a healthier and more durable phase. The recent weakness reflects a pause typical of major technology transitions rather than a structural reversal in EV adoption.

Gianarikas said EV demand, previously boosted by generous tax credits, is resetting into a smaller but more fundamentals-driven market.

Pricing and incentives are normalising, weaker models are being phased out, and competition is increasingly favouring manufacturers with dedicated EV platforms, software and cost discipline.

Gianarikas said Tesla stands apart in the U.S. as the only automaker with a fully scaled and integrated EV franchise, with Rivian emerging as the only credible long-term mass-market challenger.

He added that the current shakeout is clarifying which automakers treated EVs as core businesses rather than compliance efforts, a shift he sees as positive for Tesla’s market share.